The great question that weighs on the Ibex-35 is if its reasonable valuation is closer to the 8,000 points it approached in early June, from the 6,000 it dropped at its worst in mid-March, or of the little more than 7,000 that it is marking in the last days.
A note to note is that, according to the IMF, stock indicators are very expensive, they have rebounded too quickly, taking into account the economic weakness. And the bags have indeed recovered very vertically. Also, the Ibex-35 that, in the 7,000 points, is revalued 15% from lows; and in the 8,000 points that it has come to haunt, around 30%.
But the selective is lagging far behind its peers. Andrés Aragoneses, from Singular Bank, recalls that the Ibex-35 fell 24% this year, compared to losses of 18% for the Ftse Mib in Milan or 8% for the German Dax. But, at the same time, the domestic index is also more expensive than others in the Old Continent: it is trading at a per (price between profit) of 23.5 times, compared to 21.1 times for the Stoxx 600 Europe, the pan-European indicator.
The Ibex’s greatest enemy:
But Molina stresses that the Ibex-35 has a great internal enemy: its sectoral composition. And it is that in the selective there are few securities of sectors that right now attract money. It only mentions specific cases of “strong values”: Viscofán, Endesa, Iberdrola, or Cellnex. While the weight of the “weak sectors” in the indicator is broad: banking, ‘telephones’, cars or airlines. “There are no clear alternatives. Now he is not going to buy cheap, “says Molina. «I don’t see incentives; I see a lot of risk in the search for opportunities, and weakness, which invites us to stay on the sidelines, “ditch.
López sees some other option, although not very abundant: he adds to the defensive values, especially electrical, technological, health, or stable consumption. The Ibex-35, as Del Pozo points out, is a ‘value’ index, due to the great weight of the financial sector, and that reduces its potential revaluation points. But, in return, it indicates as an alternative attraction the high dividend return. Aragonese insists on this, especially in the shareholder remuneration of the ‘utilities’, which gain competitiveness since other types of companies have been forced to suspend the dividend. Also, see this cheap sector in terms of per.
IBEX 35 SHORT (Sell)
ENTER AT: 7159.3