GBP/USD is rising as the EU and UK agree to extend Brexit talks, yet details are lacking. Meanwhile, the safe-haven dollar is retreating in hopes that Trump is discharged from the hospital.
An accord on future EU-UK relations may come around Halloween – the new deadline for concluding talks. PM Boris Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen held a conference call on Saturday, agreeing to extend negotiations, thus boosting the pound. On the other side of the pond, the safe-haven US dollar is retreating amid hopes that President Donald Trump will leave the Walter Reed hospital as his COVID-19 illness is improving.
Brexit is far from being resolved. France has adopted a tough line on fisheries, a sensitive topic in London. Moreover, both sides are at loggerheads on state aid and other topics. Neither Brussels nor Britain published any details on progress, undermining sterling’s rally. Investors have had their share of hopes and disappointments in recent weeks and need substance to rally on.
On Trump’s coronavirus condition, there are reasons to be cautious. Sean Conley, the president’s doctor, revealed on Sunday that Patient No. 1 suffered two episodes in which his oxygen level dropped to worrying levels. While his fever is now under control, it may be a result of using dexamethasone – steroids used for severe COVID-19 cases. The dollar may still rise if the president remains under medical supervision for another night.
There are higher chances for a fiscal stimulus deal. Trump has been speaking with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell over the weekend, trying to advance the next relief package. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi also expressed optimism on Friday.
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