Please disable Ad Blocker before you can visit the website !!!
thumbnail

GBP/USD Short

by SignalFactory   ·  November 6, 2020 | 10:45:33 UTC  

GBP/USD Short

by SignalFactory   ·  November 6, 2020 | 10:45:33 UTC  

A new source of concern for investors over the longer-term relates to Scotland and the potential breakup of the United Kingdom.

“The state of the union in the UK is again in the spotlight after an opinion poll indicated that Scotland is favouring independence. Not only did Scotland vote to remain in the EU in the 2016 referendum but First Minister and Leader of the SNP Sturgeon is seen as having performed better than Johnson through the Covid-19 crisis. The SNP is expected to perform well in the May 2021 Scottish Parliament election, and this could increase pressure on the Westminster government to allow another vote of Scottish independence,” says Foley.

The issue gained prominence on October 14 after polling company Ipsos MORI revealed support for independence in Scotland had reached its highest level on record, with a whopping 58% of Scots who are likely to vote saying they are inclined to take their country out of the UK if they were asked to vote today.

Politics are likely to prove to be a headwind that contains enthusiasm towards the Pound. Foley says PM Johnson’s popularity among his own party faithful is at a low ebb after a series of policy U-turns this year and on the back of criticism over his handling of the Covid-19 crisis.

Scottish independence matters for the Pound, with the 2014 referendum resulting in the Pound falling as it absorbed a risk-premium in anticipation of a potential vote for independence, with declines accelerating in response to some polls that suggested the outcome would be close.

The currency recovered following a result in favor of the status quo.

Economics are also unfavorable given England has this week entered a second lockdown and joins the other nations of the UK in having significant restrictions on movement, which economists say will knock the economy into contraction once more.

Granted, with other European nations and the U.S. facing second waves of covid-19, the relative damage of the lockdown is mitigated. However, data does show the UK to have already been the second-most negatively impacted economy in Europe from the first lockdown.

“The four-week lockdown announced by the PM from November 5 has pulled the rug away from hopes of a UK recovery in the final quarter of the year. In turn, this has injected fresh life into speculation about the prospects of a negative interest rate from the BoE. This too is likely to cloud the outlook for the pound going forward,” says Foley.

Rabobank is forecasting the Pound-to-Dollar exchange rate to trade at 1.30 in three months, 1.29 in six months, and 1.34 at this point in 2021.

GBP/USD Short (Sell)

ENTER AT: 1.3132

T.P: 1.3097

S.L: 1.3181

GBP/USD
All information on this website is of a general nature. The information is not adapted to conditions that are specific to your person or entity. The information provided can not be considered as personal, professional or legal advice or investment advice to the user. This website and all information is intended for educational purposes only and does not give financial advice. Signal Factory is not a service to provide legal and financial advice; any information provided here is only the personal opinion of the author (not advice or financial advice in any sense, and in the sense of any act, ordinance or law of any country) and must not be used for financial activities. Signal Factory does not offer, operate or provide financial, brokerage, commercial or investment services and is not a financial advisor. Rather, Signal Factory is an educational site and a platform for exchanging Forex information. Whenever information is disclosed, whether express or implied, about profit or revenue, it is not a guarantee. No method or trading system ensures that it will generate a profit, so always remember that trade can lead to a loss. Trading responsibility, whether resulting in profits or losses, is yours and you must agree not to hold Signal Factory or other information providers that are responsible in any way whatsoever. The use of the system means that the user accepts Disclaimer and Terms of Use. Signal Factory is not represented as a registered investment consultant or brokerage dealer nor offers to buy or sell any of the financial instruments mentioned in the service offered. While Signal Factory believes that the content provided is accurate, there are no explicit or implied warranties of accuracy. The information provided is believed to be reliable; Signal Factory does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided. Third parties refer to Signal Factory to provide technology and information if a third party fails, and then there is a risk that the information may be delayed or not delivered at all. All information and comments contained on this website, including but not limited to, opinions, analyzes, news, prices, research, and general, do not constitute investment advice or an invitation to buy or sell any type of instrument. Signal Factory assumes no responsibility for any loss or damage that may result, directly or indirectly, from the use or dependence on such information. All information contained on this web site is a personal opinion or belief of the author. None of these data is a recommendation or financial advice in any sense, also within the meaning of any commercial act or law. Writers, publishers and affiliates of Signal Factory are not responsible for your trading in any way. The information and opinions contained in the site are provided for information only and for educational reasons, should never be considered as direct or indirect advice to open a trading account and / or invest money in Forex trading with any Forex company . Signal Factory assumes no responsibility for any decisions taken by the user to create a merchant account with any of the brokers listed on this website. Anyone who decides to set up a merchant account or use the services, free of charge or paid, to any of the Forex companies mentioned on this website, bears full responsibility for their actions. Any institution that offers a service and is listed on this website, including forex brokers, financial companies and other institutions, is present only for informational purposes. All ratings, ratings, banners, reviews, or other information found for any of the above-mentioned institutions are provided in a strictly objective manner and according to the best possible reflection of the materials on the official website of the company. Forex trading is potentially high risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high level of leverage can work both for and against merchants. Before each Forex investment, you should carefully consider your goals, past experience and risk level. The opinions and data contained on this site should not be considered as suggestions or advice for the sale or purchase of currency or other instruments. Past results do not show or guarantee future results. Neither Signal Factory nor its affiliates ensure the accuracy of the content provided on this Site. You explicitly agree that viewing, visiting or using this website is at your own risk.

Signal Factory is now on Telegram

make sure to join our Telegram channel now and you will not miss any update

Join
Close