Please disable Ad Blocker before you can visit the website !!!

Aluminum Long

by SignalFactory   ·  March 2, 2022 | 13:28:47 UTC  

Aluminum Long

by SignalFactory   ·  March 2, 2022 | 13:28:47 UTC  

Aluminum continued to lead the metals price rally March 1 — after monthly average gains of around 7% in February — as market players sought clarity on how some Russian banks’ exclusion from the SWIFT international payments system might impact supplies.

London Metal Exchange three-month spot aluminum traded at $3,461/mt at 12:58 London time March 1, up 2.8% on the previous day’s close.

Aluminum had touched a record $3,525/mt Feb. 28, when nickel broke above $25,000/mt.

Amid a barrage of sanctions imposed by the US, EU, UK, and other Western allies on Russian entities following the country’s Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine, it was still unclear whether SWIFT-related sanctions would apply to all metals trades. The US Treasury announced Feb. 28 exemption of energy trades from these sanctions until June 24, in a move to lessen energy price inflation.

Market appraisals of the situation varied.

“Although a few Russian banks have been disconnected from the SWIFT system we expect payments to the main metal producers to continue without disruption,” an international trading house told S&P Global Commodity Insights. “This will be via the remaining Russian banks or through the international branches of Russian banks. In addition, the large metal producers such as Rusal, Norilsk Nickel, etc. have offshore treasury systems in place.”

Another diversified trading house said Russian banks’ removal from SWIFT “cuts off access to funding and access to liquidity — it will be very difficult to operate.”

The UK’s Financial Conduct Authority on March 1 temporarily suspended trading in securities of JSC VTB, an Indian subsidiary of Russia’s second-largest bank, VTB. Trades in another of the bank’s subsidiaries were suspended on the London Stock Exchange on Feb. 25.

UBS — which raised its forecast aluminum target price to $3,500/mt (from $3,300/mt) and nickel to $26,000/mt (from $24,000/mt) — noted that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had exacerbated the inverse relationship between commodities, including metals, and equities.

“Commodity markets have moved in the opposite direction of global equities so far this year. The rise in commodity prices has been broad-based and not limited to just the energy sector, which has received the most market attention,” the bank’s analysts said in a report distributed March 1.

Aluminum upside:
Canceling SWIFT payments for aluminum could “compound the difficulties of moving material out of Russia, [so] there will be more upside on the Rotterdam premium.

Sanctions, it is feared, could further squeeze aluminum inventories. These are tight following China’s recent curbs on the use of coal-based energy at smelters, which has led to a decline in global primary output levels on an annual comparison over the past three months, despite rising demand, according to the International Aluminium Institute.

“Around 5%‑6% of global aluminum and nickel supply is at risk from the Russia‑Ukraine conflict via potential sanctions on Russia,” wrote CBA analysts in a March 1 report. “Aluminium markets were already tight before the conflict due to supply cuts in China as policymakers looked to contain emissions. Prices were also supported by higher energy‑led production costs in Europe. While sanctions are unlikely to be applied directly to Russian aluminum exports, sanctions on individuals close to Putin could indirectly impact Russia’s aluminum output.”

Announcement of 2018 sanctions against Russian billionaire Oleg Deripaska, which resulted in restrictions on Russia’s Rusal — the world’s second-largest aluminum producer-led prices for the metal to initially spiking around 30%, CBA recalled.

Aluminum Long (Buy)
Enter at: 3543.75
T.P_1: 3636.75
T.P_2: 3914.25
T.P_3: 4190.25
T.P_4: 4558.00
T.P_5: 4869.25
S.L: 3214.00

All information on this website is of a general nature. The information is not adapted to conditions that are specific to your person or entity. The information provided can not be considered as personal, professional or legal advice or investment advice to the user. This website and all information is intended for educational purposes only and does not give financial advice. Signal Factory is not a service to provide legal and financial advice; any information provided here is only the personal opinion of the author (not advice or financial advice in any sense, and in the sense of any act, ordinance or law of any country) and must not be used for financial activities. Signal Factory does not offer, operate or provide financial, brokerage, commercial or investment services and is not a financial advisor. Rather, Signal Factory is an educational site and a platform for exchanging Forex information. Whenever information is disclosed, whether express or implied, about profit or revenue, it is not a guarantee. No method or trading system ensures that it will generate a profit, so always remember that trade can lead to a loss. Trading responsibility, whether resulting in profits or losses, is yours and you must agree not to hold Signal Factory or other information providers that are responsible in any way whatsoever. The use of the system means that the user accepts Disclaimer and Terms of Use. Signal Factory is not represented as a registered investment consultant or brokerage dealer nor offers to buy or sell any of the financial instruments mentioned in the service offered. While Signal Factory believes that the content provided is accurate, there are no explicit or implied warranties of accuracy. The information provided is believed to be reliable; Signal Factory does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided. Third parties refer to Signal Factory to provide technology and information if a third party fails, and then there is a risk that the information may be delayed or not delivered at all. All information and comments contained on this website, including but not limited to, opinions, analyzes, news, prices, research, and general, do not constitute investment advice or an invitation to buy or sell any type of instrument. Signal Factory assumes no responsibility for any loss or damage that may result, directly or indirectly, from the use or dependence on such information. All information contained on this web site is a personal opinion or belief of the author. None of these data is a recommendation or financial advice in any sense, also within the meaning of any commercial act or law. Writers, publishers and affiliates of Signal Factory are not responsible for your trading in any way. The information and opinions contained in the site are provided for information only and for educational reasons, should never be considered as direct or indirect advice to open a trading account and / or invest money in Forex trading with any Forex company . Signal Factory assumes no responsibility for any decisions taken by the user to create a merchant account with any of the brokers listed on this website. Anyone who decides to set up a merchant account or use the services, free of charge or paid, to any of the Forex companies mentioned on this website, bears full responsibility for their actions. Any institution that offers a service and is listed on this website, including forex brokers, financial companies and other institutions, is present only for informational purposes. All ratings, ratings, banners, reviews, or other information found for any of the above-mentioned institutions are provided in a strictly objective manner and according to the best possible reflection of the materials on the official website of the company. Forex trading is potentially high risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high level of leverage can work both for and against merchants. Before each Forex investment, you should carefully consider your goals, past experience and risk level. The opinions and data contained on this site should not be considered as suggestions or advice for the sale or purchase of currency or other instruments. Past results do not show or guarantee future results. Neither Signal Factory nor its affiliates ensure the accuracy of the content provided on this Site. You explicitly agree that viewing, visiting or using this website is at your own risk.

Signal Factory is now on Telegram

make sure to join our Telegram channel now and you will not miss any update